GOLDMAN SACHS has lowered its music industry forecasts for 2024 after streaming revenues fell short. The global market grew by 6.2%, missing the bank’s 7.6% projection, reported DIGITAL MUSIC NEWS

Streaming posted the steepest decline. GOLDMAN SACHS had projected a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. That figure has now been revised to 7.9%.

Recorded music revenue grew by only 4.8% in 2024, falling well short of the 8.9% forecast. Ad-supported streaming was hit hardest. The firm reduced its 2024 growth estimate from 11.3% to 5.7%. Subscription streaming for 2025 was also downgraded, from $33 billion to $31.3 billion.

By contrast, other areas of the music business performed better. Live music remains strong. GOLDMAN SACHS kept its 2025 revenue forecast for that category at $38.2 billion. Demand for CDs and vinyl, driven by superfans, met or exceeded expectations. Publishing remained stable. Forecasts for that segment were unchanged at $10.7 billion for 2025.

In total, 2025 recorded music revenue projections were cut from $33.9 billion to $31.4 billion. Growth rates for 2025 and 2026 were revised down to 5.8% and 6.6%, from 8.8% and 8.4%.

The slowdown was confirmed by data from the INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF THE PHONOGRAPHIC INDUSTRY (IFPI). GOLDMAN SACHS called the changes a “streaming plateau.” The report signals a shift to more cautious projections and renewed focus on monetizing superfans and emerging markets. Read the full report here.